Has China underreported the number of Covid-19 cases?

March 30, 2020November 30, 2020 / Andrada Costoiu / 8 Comments

Having analyzing the statistics for the past week or so, I am rather puzzled by the evolution of the pandemics across the world. While China is reporting very few or little cases, other parts of the world, aka Western Europe and USA is witnessing an exponential evolution in number of infections and deaths. Not only is the number of infections quickly increasing everywhere but, by comparison, the number of cases/size of population seems unaligned when comparing China with the rest of the world.

Because I have lived in a former communist country, my first thought was that China’s government is misinforming the rest of the world. However, I have dismissed this idea on thoughts that they have been better on measures of containment.
Though, as the infection with Covid-19 is unfolding day after day, my thoughts of misinformation don’t go away. So, I am looking again at statistics. The story of China doesn’t seem credible and here is why.

Forget about the number of deaths, let’s look at the numbers in a way an epidemiologist would analyze them.

Scientists use RO – the reproduction number – to describe the intensity of an infectious disease outbreak. R0 is the number of cases, on average, an infected person will cause during their infectious period. According the available scientific information the RO for SARS was 3 (World Health Organization). Click here to see the reference about SARS. So an infected person will infect 3 other people and so on. It’s like a snowball.

We don’t know yet what the reproduction number is yet for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. But what we do know is the number of infections and deaths/ per country.

By looking at statistics, I think the most telling is the following. I built this table based on data from European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. This table shows how the number of infections has doubled throughout the world. You can find more statistics and info at European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, click here to get to their page

World	# cases doubled in 7 days	657,140 total March 29	+65,169 new March 29
United States	# cases doubled in 4 days	124,665 total March 29	+19,979 new March 29
Italy	# cases doubled in 9 days	92,472 total March 29	+5,974 new March 29
China	# cases doubled in 48 days	82,342 total March 29	+129 new March 29
Spain	# cases doubled in 5 days	72,248 total March 29	+8,189 new March 29
Germany	# cases doubled in 6 days	52,547 total March 29	+3,965 new March 29
France	# cases doubled in 6 days	37,575 total March 29	+4,611 new March 29
United Kingdom	# cases doubled in 4 days	17,089 total March 29	+2,546 new March 29

Data source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control

Now, if the RO is the same for this virus across the world, you would expect the number of days in which the # of cases would double to be comparable among countries. Not the same, but comparable. So then, how come, between China and the rest of the world there is such a huge discrepancy?!!!! 48 days for China, while the rest of the world is 6-7 days?!!

To add to this, China’s population is 1.386 billion people. But let’s not talk about whole China. The hardest hit province was Hubei with 55 million. Guangdong Province too, was affected and it is connected by strong transportation links to Hubei Province. Guangdong is home to 113 million people and contains many large cities including Guangzhou (12m people), Shenzhen (10m), Dongguan (8m) and Foshan (7m). So, between Hubei and Guandog, we have close to 160 million people….
Let’s assume that COVID did not spread past these 2 provinces…

China has reported 82,342. So, to compare
China 82,342/160 million people
Italy 92,472 /60.4 million
Germany 52,547 /82.7 million
Germany and Italy had a much later start than China, and they are still going strong. They still have yet to flatten the curve.

Based on this data, I am not sure if China is telling the real numbers. If they are, it would be great to know how their numbers doubled in 48 days while for the rest of the world was 6-7 days. Also, what measures they put in place to spread the disease propagating throughout the rest of the population.

I guess I am not the only one that hypothesizes that the Chinese official figures are inaccurate.

Dr. Anne Schuchat, deputy director of the CDC, stated that her organization believes China is underreporting Covid-19 data.

CDC Admits We Are Being Lied To: "We absolutely assume that the number of reported cases [of #CoronaVirus] are an underestimate". #CoronaVirusOutbreak https://t.co/hy3A7It8bD
— Coronavirus Updates – Alexander Higgins (@kr3at) February 11, 2020

Also, according to a study from Ohio State University, for China, “the number of cumulative cases, new cases per day , and cumulative deaths coming from the non-official data are all substantially higher by a factor of 5 to 10 (depending on the date of the data) than would be implied by the official Chinese government data”. (Source: He, Mai and Dunn, Lucia F., Evaluating Incidence and Impact Estimates of the Coronavirus Outbreak from Official and Non-Official Chinese Data Sources (February 18, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3540636 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3540636)

A newspaper from NYC has obtained data from Shandong province in China. They report that:

“Each day from Feb. 9 to Feb. 23, Shandong authorities underreported the number of infections, according to internal data compiled by the Shandong Center for Disease Prevention and Control (SCDC). The SCDC kept a tally of the number of people who tested positive for the virus during nucleic acid testing—using a diagnostic kit to test patient samples and detect whether they contain the virus’s genetic sequence.
The SCDC’s daily new infection numbers ranged from 1.36 times to 52 times greater than the officially published data by the Shandong health commission and China’s National Health Commission.
As of Feb. 25, the Shandong government stated that there were a total of 755 infections in the province. But the internal document showed that 1,992 people had tested positive for the virus via nucleic acid testing as of Feb. 23.”

And now, UK’s government it believes that China has heavily underreported their cases. Click here is the link for the article in UK’s news

Oh, and here is an update: an article that came out today on yahoo news, that says ” Wuhan Residents Dismiss Official Coronavirus Death Toll: ‘The Incinerators Have Been Working Around the Clock”. Click here to go to this article.

Well folks, with all this information, I will let you judge. I think we all need to work together to combat this virus. No matter which part of the world we inhabit, we’re in this together. This is not a question of politics, it is a question of humanity.

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© Andrada Costoiu and a-passion4life.com, 2019- . Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this site’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Andrada Costoiu and a-passion4life.com, 2019 with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

Whoever carries a light

March 28, 2020November 30, 2020 / Andrada Costoiu / 7 Comments

by Andrada Costoiu

Photo:K Whiteford has released this “Patient In Hospital Room”

The entryway is cozy,
I feel the warmth underfoot and
Soft lighting engulfs me.
Home,
I’m home.

“You’re late again!” my lover said to me.
I blink,
Life is tumultuous sometimes,
The pain of the world is real and there is no sugar coating,
I’m late, yes.

Maybe I was in a dream
Or in some kind of apocalyptic hallucination,
I spent my day between doctors and people
Carrying trays, moving equipment.

A red haired, freckled and washed out man,
Grabbed my hand when I was moving between beds,
“I wish you hurry up,
The dark night of the soul is blowing over us”, he said.

I did hurry up,
So did everyone around me.
Whoever carried a light
Was quickly walking in the darkness,
To rescue the ones who were stuck there,
And we were brining light,
One flicker at the time.

This for all the exhausted doctors, nurses and medical personnel out there. They are brining light to the ones who suffer now, one flicker at a time….

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2020 Pandemic

March 25, 2020November 30, 2020 / Andrada Costoiu / 7 Comments

by Andrada Costoiu

Photo: Gerd Altmann, “Covid-19”

In the morning I read the news, it is one of my routines. I want to see what has happened in the world while I was asleep. When the pandemic began, I started studying the statistics in search for patterns and explanations. I gained a lot of insight, at a cost.
Today I found myself sinking in my chair, crying. When the statistics came in I felt as someone punched me straight into the heart, if there is such a thing…
I was crying because Italy’s numbers went up again. For couple of days they went slightly lower. New daily deaths were around 600/day (which is a lot!) and I thought that they have reached the peak and that they were going down. I was cheering in my heart for them to be better and for their numbers to get lower and lower!!

I think Dr. Strange has skewed the reality. I feel as I live in a bad dream and I am waiting to wake up. I wonder how everybody feels?

I know that above all, hope must prevail. I know that this will be over, but I want the loss of life to stop. I don’t want old people to die alone and be buried without the attendance of their families. I don’t want people to die.

Human kind has been through bad situations. Many of them have happened before we were born, but many happened during our lives. To mention few of the latest: the Syrian war, the genocide in Kosovo and there are many others that I will just leave aside.
What have we done to stop them? Why is there always an international struggle for power, when we all are humans living on this planet. Why do we spend resources on warfare instead of spending them on development, cures, better lives for people and eventually, making our way in this vast universe because this planet might not be enough?

This virus doesn’t recognize borders. Maybe this pandemic was a wake up call. A call for people to become better, a call for nation states to become better. I hope we will learn. I hope we will become more compassionate, more loving, more supportive, because these qualities and more are in each and every one of us.
On this little planet called Earth our story, as humankind, should be a story of survival. A story of love, because it makes us all feel good. A story of compassion and support because we all need each other.

Here is to all of you, to all the doctors and nurses, to people working in all domains, to our elders, to our young people. Keep pouring whatever you have good in your cup in the cups of others, become their miracle.

We will get through this together.

Humanity

March 23, 2020November 30, 2020 / Andrada Costoiu / 5 Comments

by Andrada Costoiu

Photo: Vera Kratochvil, “Blue Morpho Butterfly”

The elephant and his baby
Have passed by,
Fresh, casual, cute.
Among trees, flowers and clouds,
She watched as the world was retaking its natural forms.

She was vulnerable and so was her world.

The plague has killed the ghost of separation,
The cages have fallen
Even as more cages were being built,
They were all connected into the web of life.

The impulse and the fate
Turned her into a bee,
She wanted to make sure that flowers kept going
And that so was the food for everyone around her.

She realized that others were doing the same,
The lions, the horses and all others,
Were doing their job,
Protecting, pulling, healing.

Imperfect as they are,
They’re all in this together.
Things will get better
And when they do
They will each recount their stories of survival
Gathered by the fire.

I wrote this thinking about all people in the world, in a world where you could be anything,who are you in this vast universe? Leave a comment with a word that would best describe you. Love and peace to you all.

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© Andrada Costoiu and a-passion4life.com, 2019 . Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this site’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Andrada Costoiu and a-passion4life.com, 2019 with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

Cheer you up #2: Charmin undercover

March 21, 2020March 21, 2020 / Andrada Costoiu / 6 Comments

by Andrada Costoiu

At my desk,
I’m sneezing,
It’s probably from all the dust that has accumulated,
I haven’t been dusting,
I am busy and in a ruminative thought pattern,
Trying to make sense of the recent events.

The other day in the news,
Jackie Chan was fighting a New York gang member over a toilet paper roll.
“Shiny hiney” song interpreted by Charmin band,
Is #1 in topmusic charts.
It seems that today’s social order
Revolves around who has the cleanest ass*hole.

I want to gain control of my thoughts,
And disengage from this toilet paper dystopia.
Different societies prioritize different things,
I heard that the tea aisles in London’s supermarkets are empty,
They must have their own culprit……
But here, after two weeks of search,
I am glad that they finally found ours.
His name is Charmin,
He and his gang have been behind the current events.

Now that he’s caught he has no booty smile,
Way to go Charmin,
You’ll always be the villain till the end of time!

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Letters to Juliet and Romeo

March 18, 2020November 30, 2020 / Andrada Costoiu / 5 Comments

Photo: Frank Bernard Dicksee

In this trying time, we are all affected somehow. The tragedy in China and now Italy is unimaginable. Some of us are far away from the ones we love, some people have lost their loved ones. So, I am opening a part of my blog to you.

Inspired by the story of Romeo and Juliette, and from a book I read, I encourage you to write letters to your loved ones. Write to your own Romeo, your own Juliette, your mom, dad, or whomever you love.

You could send them to me at sunshineandrada@yahoo.com and I will post them here. You can write anonymously or you can say few words about yourself. I think we should spread love and hope, because it will help us all.

Here are few letters, written by others, that I have found in a book.

The best and most beautiful things in the world cannot be seen or even touched – they must be felt with the heart.
Hellen Keller

Sudden Oaks’ Death

March 17, 2020November 30, 2020 / Andrada Costoiu / 8 Comments

by Andrada Costoiu

Photo: “Hilltop Oak Tree”, by Ken Kistler

It was a warm summer night,
With blue skies and a gentle breeze brushing the grass.
Standing at the edge of the forest, the tree was quiet,
Scars on its bark were witnesses of times
That bent him lower and lower…..

Today he got word from inside his oak forest,
Live tweets were coming about older trees,
They were dying,
Their crowns were tumbling in green tresses
All the way to the ground.

He knew that the eternal cycle of the seasons is underway,
But this was not time, and it was not winter…..
Moving beetles have infested the soil,
A quarantine was in place,
But beetles still liked to sing….

He’s always been part of this uniquely beautiful wood,
He felt despair tingling his heels,
And bleeding symptoms on his trunk,
Rising straight into the grey sky,
He clenched on his roots,
He wanted to see another spring…

I hardly wanted to write one more thing about the current situation, but I have read few articles about the situation in Italy, especially in the areas of Bergamo and Lombardy, that have broken my heart. So many older people are dying. If you have the guts to read something really sad here is an article in NYTimes about it : https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-funerals.html

I wrote this in hope to spread more love for our elders. I saw in the news that they were urging millennials to respect distance, here is what they say: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/coronavirus-official-explains-millennials-key-stopping-spread/story?id=69638468

So please, if possible let’s stay home and also avoid contact with elders if you think you’ve been exposed to the virus. In Italy, the numbers have grown exponentially, partly because families there are so close; young and old live or spend time together. Thus, if a young asymptomatic has it, then it would not knowingly passing it to his elders.

Below is a statistic I have found, that is a live report of the spread situation around the world. You can find it here: live report on coronavirus.

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Cheer up

March 16, 2020November 30, 2020 / Andrada Costoiu / 10 Comments

by Andrada Costoiu

Photo: Creative Commons

Home, considerate of the current situation,
Thinking about some evil Picasso cubism faces,
He might have been a visionary,
And seen the present scare,
Of people in the stores?

But we’re not in Syria, we don’t really know what it’s like….
I think there will be TP,
There will be food…..
So….
I’ve been watching the cooking channel,
I saw an ad for the “worst cook in the USA”
I am wondering how do they make their selection,
And why haven’t they called me?

My young son is head-over-heels on Bobby Flay,
He thinks his food looks so good!
I used to live up to the expectations through a lot of takeouts,
But now I seriously have to improve my cooking skills!

Maybe if they organize an on-line cooking boot camp
I will better understand my culinary transgressions.
Last night I tried to make cheesecake in a blender,
I failed…
Then wondered..
‘How the heck did that happen?’”
I could operate an airplane
But I get into all kinds of shenanigans in my kitchen….

Today is another day,
Since all the fruits from Whole Foods were gone,
I am going to make some pasta.
I heard that breaking pasta in half is bad
And that every time you do it an angel cries sadly,
So I wont break it, I’ll listen to the Italian nonnas.

After I’m done I’m going to switch my chef hat
To the homeschooling hat,
Today’s schedule, among other classes, includes….
Honors Vacuuming and AP laundry.

To all o you out there…..
Enjoy your day
Have fun with new projects,
Or do the same old,
And stay healthy!
Cheers!

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Take me home

March 9, 2020November 30, 2020 / Andrada Costoiu / 19 Comments

by Andrada Costoiu

Photo: “Helping Hands”, Irene Marie Dorey

Today I sat next to an old man on a bench,
He was amusingly bedraggled,
As an anthropologist forever looking
For foreign species on Earth.

His eyebrows were huge,
Eerily covering his beady blue eyes,
I think his mind didn’t wander as much as mine,
Because when he saw me he starred!

He thought that I am some observant time-traveller from another place
And he felt obliged to educate me into the matters of his world.
He asked if I ever had muesli with sheep’s-milk yogurt,
And what do I think about the muscular men,
Which were running by our bench in the park.

I didn’t want to skew his beliefs and his image of me
So I told him that Earth is a funny place,
I didn’t try the muesli,
But I did shaved my legs
And I did have a beach-blanket boozy night with a statuesque male.

He smiled and asked if my world is furnished with mirrors,
I told him that yes,
And that they reflect who you really are inside.
He said: ”good, then make sure to laugh and smile every moment.”

I smiled and took a deep breath,
And that’s when I saw his Alzheimer “take me home” bracelet.
One life lesson says:
“Don’t always take yourself so seriously”
I’m glad I didn’t.
All that really matters in the end is to love and to be loved,
Somewhere, somebody was waiting for him……
And I will take him home.

I think that there are so many souls out there that cry for help and we just pass by. In a world full of distractions it is easy to do that. But maybe if we listen more, see more, that would save someone.

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The Go Away Gnome

March 2, 2020November 30, 2020 / Andrada Costoiu / 8 Comments

by Andrada Costoiu

Photo: “Garden Gnome”, by Jks Lola

He was alone,
Lost among garden lamps
Scissors and plastic plants.

All of his friends were gone,
Left for new homes, they all had signs of
“Welcome” or “Garden maintained by gnomes”
or other peculiar signs that made them special.

His sign was “Go away”.
He understood that nobody liked him,
Because they were either making fun of his sign,
Or of his eyebrows that his maker has drawn too high.

Whatever they made him look like,
It was not who he really was.
Inside of him was quiet,
He was like all the others,
Wanting to see the sunshine,
Wanting to feel the rain.

Maybe somebody will pick him up tomorrow,
Maybe some angry person,
That wants to shoo away the neighborhood kids,
Or maybe someone that was like him,
Angry looking on the outside but gentle within.

He is still waiting…..for someone to need him,
For someone to understand.

This is for all the different people, for the misunderstood, for the ones that are judged by stereotypes ….for the ones that feel that they have no place. It is also for the ones that need to break their mind free. Please think about the gnome in the real world……and let’s all make it better.