by Andrada Costoiu
We live in unprecedented times, not because wars did not happen before but because the military power and the weapons’ sophistication is far beyond what nation states had at hand before. If you’re watching TV and reading the news you hear politicians, economists and journalists giving their opinions. Some of them are extremely offensive, some of them have smiles on their faces. I do not enjoy any of it, and I find myself in political impossibility.
I would like to see a reasonable end to the madness we are all part of. I have been trying to, but people who are knowledgeable of Russian politics do not say good things about how this is going to end.
Fiona Hill, an expert in Russia politics says in an interview that was published by Politico: “Every time you think, ’No, he wouldn’t, would he?’ Well, yes, he would. And he wants us to know that, of course. It’s not that we should be intimidated and scared…. We have to prepare for those contingencies and figure out what is it that we’re going to do to head them off.”
You can read her interview if you clock here: Fiona Hill Politico Interview
Thomas Friedman, an author that has penned well known books on world politics, says that he sees 3 scenarios about how this war ends. None of them are rosy, but the less likely of them it’s called …. “the salvation.” You can read that New York Times article here:
And, just yesterday, US gov is offering advice on how to survive a nuclear blast. Here it is : Nuclear Explosion Ready.gov
Ok, so, first, people in Ukraine are dying. That’s right, children, old people, women and men are dying.
Second, if the government is kindly offering us advice of how to survive nuclear blast, they should also know that nobody survives above the ground in the area of the blast. We also do not have the kind of houses that would offer protection against the penetration of gamma radiation, in case we are not in the blast area. And….in California there are no basements.
So, no, I am not smiling. None of us should. Perhaps the ones smiling on TV and in political and in other kinds of circles have a plan B. But us, regular people, do not.
Biden said yesterday “We’re ready.”
I am asking, ready for what?
What are the checks and balances in the situation that is unfolding right under our eyes?
Is there a logical, tactical plan that would end this or at least minimize the damages and the risks?
I am never pessimistic, but right now I need someone to help me out of the gloom.
From the Lion King that my kids love so much, to Star Wars, the Edge of Tomorrow and you name it, everyone likes to think they’re a hero. Right now, I and us all are looking for that kind of hero, but in real life. We need somebody wise that would be able to de escalate the conflict.
If he shows up, god bless him/her/they (or whatever the pronoun the hero would like!). We should call him: The man/woman who saved the world.
May we all see the light.
Andrada Costoiu 
Putin has been planning this for 20 + years. All the hacking, all the interfering in democratic elections in the US, UK, Brexit, using fake news to affect the outcome that suited him, a less united world, particularly in Europe.
Supression of the press bringing it back under state control was also necessary to stop any oppostion at home from Russians. Opposition figures jailed or killed. Watering down and filling the Russian Dumas with his yes men so in every area of Russian society he has tight grip.
His invasion of part of Georgia in 2008 was also part of this same plan because he has long stated that the collaspe of the Soviet Union was the worst thing that ever happened to Russia.
Yes, he has been surprised at how hard hitting the sanctions are this time around, but from his point of view it is now or never if he want to claw back much of the Soviet Union.
If he is able to defeat Ukraine, then he will take the rest of Georgia and also Moldova. which has a tiny army of 6,000. Due to Russian immigrants remaining in Moldova at the fall of the Soviet Union Transdniestria region proclaimed independence from Moldova in 1990, resulting in a brief civil war. Although a cease-fire was declared in 1992, relations remained tense between Moldova and Transdniestria (which is not recognised by the rest of the world). Russian troops are still present in the security zone. Moldova considers itself neutral and is neither in the EU nor Nato.
The Russians have fired missles from Transdniestria into the Ukraine, since the war began.
The world should have stopped Putin in Georgia, and now he might just push the “button” if he can’t get his way.
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You are right. Moldova, formerly known as Bessarabia, was an integral part of Romania until 1812, when it was ceded to Russia. Then it remained a province of the Russian Empire until after World War I, when it became a part of Greater Romania, and it reverted to Russian again after World War II. Romania and Moldova are very close culturally, we speak the same language and have the same currency.
We shall see what the next few days will bring. I hope it will be :PEACE.
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The best we can hope for is stalemate and armistice with Ukraine divided in an east and west. That would be the best outcome. That may be driven by the rise of an anti-war movement in the US and by a deterioration on the Russian economy.
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