First, I would like to offer a little background on this, for people who are not familiar with this part of the world. I think that what is happening right now was brewing for a while.
Putin was deeply bothered (for a long time!) but more so since the Revolution of Dignity. Back in 2013, Ukraine’s pro-European trajectory was abruptly halted in November 2013 when Yanukovych, the president of Ukraine at that time, bowed to intense pressure from Moscow just days before the association was to be signed.
Protests took place over the next months, people were jailed, scores of others were killed until in February 2014 when Yanukovych and his regime were ousted. It was great, because the Ukrainian economy and politics were struggling with oligarch-controlled manufacturing industries and with the same kind of control in political life.
The same year, in the aftermath of this revolution, Russia attacked and annexed Crimea. In that conflict only, when Russia invaded and occupied Crimea, over 13,000 people died. I am not sure what is going to happen now. Nothing is surprising anymore. I won’t be surprised if Putin wants to bring back the former president Viktor Yanukovych. I won’t be surprised by any twists and turns in this ongoing war.
Second, I am worried about the escalation of the curent conflict. If a missile goes wrong, in the wrong direction…let’s say towards Romania or another NATO member, the situation can get seriously out of control. Not that anything is in order now, because at Romania’s and Poland’s borders there are already thousands of refugees. And I can’t even think of what is on the ground in Ukraine.
And, there is one more thing…..the situation in the Black Sea is not very good. According to news outlets , Snake Island is now controlled by the Russian army.
The island itself is Ukrainian, but, for a long time, Romania refused to legally recognize it as an island so as not to lose sovereignty over the surrounding waters. The territorial limits of the continental shelf around Snake Island were finally delineated by the International Court of Justice in 2009, and Romania has 9,700 square kilometers of the continental shelf around the island.